Impact of Egypt on Us

[Trip]

For anyone who doubts the interconnectivity of the world today, all you have to do is watch what seems like a small number of protestors in Egypt today pushing to oust Mubarak, and watch how huge the impact could be on us.

At a minimum investors and global markets are extremely concerned about the destabilizing effect on oil prices. And even if calm is restored next week, the current uncertainty is hitting stock markets everywhere around the world, with the markets dropping, and likely to continue doing so on Monday. And if that keeps happening, you can definitely expect it to hit our pockets here in the next few weeks.

High unemployment and numerous other factors in Egypt could potentially lead to Mubarak - a key ally of the western world - to be pushed out..... and the uncertainty about his successors having a very negative impact on oil prices, the global economy, and Middle East stability. For some of us there's even parallels with 1979 Iran, when protestors pushed our flawed ally, the Shah of Iran out, only to be replaced with the radical Mullahs. And we all know the profound impact that had for the next 30 years.

Egypt is even more critical with their control of the Suez canal. Mubarak, as flawed as he is, has been a key mediator for opposing forces in the Middle East, and can be profoundly credited for the Middle East not being in worst shape than it has been over the past years.

It won't hit our own pockets immediately, but if Egypt doesn't stablize within the next few days, expect it to catch up at our pumps in the coming weeks. If it spreads outside of Egypt, as we're seeing in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan right now as well (all moderate Arab allies of ours btw), this could be as serious as sh**.

If you're not someone who watches international news, or think it's not important, now would be a good time to start.

[retdetsgt]

Mubarak, as flawed as he is, has been a key mediator for opposing forces in the Middle East, and can be profoundly credited for the Middle East not being in worst shape than it has been over the past years.

Mostly because we pay Egypt one billion a year to play nice with Israel. That's what Carter promised them in order to get the peace prize. Up until then, Egypt was one of Israel's worst enemies.

And if we didn't need the oil in the region, we wouldn't be able to care less.

[Trip]

Mostly because we pay Egypt one billion a year to play nice with Israel. That's what Carter promised them in order to get the peace prize. Up until then, Egypt was one of Israel's worst enemies.

And if we didn't need the oil in the region, we wouldn't be able to care less.

He's back! Nice to see your fiestiness comin' back, RDS

[SANE-A30]

I watched it on the tv today at work....17 police stations was torched ! it's very scary for sure!

[mcsap]

The Egyptian Police have a TERRIBLE reputation of being corrupt, false arrests , torture etc. THAT is why they have " run for their lives" when the populace came looking for them. The military on the other hand has always had their repsect and that is why they aren't in the same boat.

Unfortunately , without ANY police , neighborhoods have had to " take up arms" to patrol and protect their homes and businesses.

We give Egypt 1.3 BILLION a year in aid.

Their are tunnels frmo Egypt into the Gaza strip where Iran supplies the Arabs with rockets and other weapons that are launched quite regularly into Israel.

[MikeG]

This is Deja Vu going back to 1979 in Iran. Mubarak is done just as the Shah was done. The only question is his replacement. If he is left in power, it will only make the eventual replacement worse. We need to at least quietly be backing a moderate replacement that is not tied to Mubarak. El Baradei is preferable to the Muslim Brotherhood. There is no reason why we shouldn't be able shape this into something that addresses the complaints of the Egyptian people and also puts a moderate in power. If we let Mubarak linger it will look like we are propping up a corrupt dictator and teh radicals will eventually win.

[Piggy]

What the world doesn't need is another Islamist state. That's exactly where the revolutionaries are headed in Egypt. Keep in mind, we got Iran because of the same type of situation. This could be very bad. Not necessarily for our generation, but generations down the road.

[retdetsgt]

From what I've read so far, the army isn't pro a theocracy and have no use for the Muslim Brotherhood. That might be the saving grace of this whole thing. But Mubarak better get out pretty quick or the chances for a reasonable government will fade away as anarchy gets worse.

Kind of annoying that we give them over 3 billion in aid and they sell us oil at inflated prices. It's logical that Carter's payment plan would have gone up over the years. Israel will have a lot to worry about if Iran has much influence in the new government. The average Egyptian doesn't like Israel one bit and the payments to the government are the only reason the leaders have kept the hatred to a dull roar.

[retdetsgt]

This is Deja Vu going back to 1979 in Iran. Mubarak is done just as the Shah was done. The only question is his replacement.

And we are continuing to back him. If doesn't take a PhD in political science to see the writing on the wall, but our government is acting just as stupid as it always has in these circumstances. If we want to win any favor with the new government, we better start supporting El Baradei and let Mubarak go.

[Trip]

This is a very complex situation that is rapidly deteriorating not just in Egypt, but potentially in other really key countries such as Jordan and is not in ANYone's control. This revolt could bring out the very best or the very worst, and there's not one person on this planet that can guarantee which way it will go. The Obama Administration was slow at the outset but Hillary Clinton is now doing the right thing, which is to straddle this very delicate situation, just as all Administrations beforehand did, showing support for those clamoring for reform while not throwing Mubarak under the bus. Why it is important not to throw Mubarak under the bus? Because foreign policy issues are NEVER black and white....they are always complex....there are always innumerable ripple affects that can be calculated, not to mention even more that can't be. Our other "flawed" allies who've done the heavy lifting over the years that kept the Middle East from being a complete powder keg.....that kept many people alive.... are watching how Mubarak is handled by the US. Throwing Mubarak under the bus right now might make casual observers feel good, but there's not one expert from any part of the political continuum that would support that. Back to the interconnectivity thing I mentioned.

This is an issue that almost all Administrations have handled the same, trying to use our financial leverage to encourage and sometimes "pressure" for democratic reforms, as slow as they've been, and the US's history of slowly pushing Egypt down that path have now sped up.....except the speed of the changes about to take place now could be horrible for the US and the western world if the chaos gets really out of hand, and I sure don't have a good feel about it. As Piggy said, we've got to be very careful and very weary about what turn this could quickly take. Iran has their fingerprints all over these protests for one, and the Islamic radicals are poised to benefit the most from an election were it to take place today. Most everyone knows Mubarak has to go....we've all known it for sometime....but the best we can do now is straddle and use our leverage to not pick any one candidate -- that is the job of the Egyptian people -- but to push for as many electoral and economic reforms as possible.

Also this is and never has been just about oil - as criticial to every aspect of our lives as that it is. I mentioned the Suez Canal in my first post because if you look around your house, many of the items we Americans depend on go thru the Suez. Almost 10% of the world's commerce goes through there. If this gets out of hand, with radical forces or others potentially shutting that down, it will send the entire global economy into a tailspin -- at this worst possible time when the global economy is still fragile.

[retdetsgt]

Yeah, let's keep backing him all the way out the door. It's worked well in the past, hasn't it?

Telling him to leave and backing moderates just isn't our way, just like in Iran.

[Trip]

Yeah, let's keep backing him all the way out the door. It's worked well in the past, hasn't it?

Telling him to leave and backing moderates just isn't our way, just like in Iran.

Huh? Sorry, fail to see your point. The world is just a little teeny weeny iddy bitty more complicated than that.

[MikeG]

I disagree. Straddling the fence is what will get us in trouble. Help Mubarak get out. Give a moderate protester candicate the resources to quickly take control and stop it and form a government. The longer it lingers, the more the radicals will get a foothold. The longer it lasts, the longer the radicals will blame the U.S. and the more hostile the replacement will be. By making the problem complicated and worrying about ripples, we become paralyzed with inaction and we just look like we are backing Mubarak.

We knew the Shah was done way before 1979. We straddled and hemmed and hawed and looked for a passive way out. We feel the effect to this day. To the Egyptian people it appears that Mubarak and anyone he selects is being propped up by the U.S. and it will just foment more anger. The U.S. isn't holding Mubarek up but that reality and the perception of the Egyptian people grows farther apart each day Mubarek retains power.

There is a difference between what we say publicly, which should support the Egyptian people, and what people on the ground inside Egypt are doing. We should be supplying moderate elements on the ground with resources and assistance. The should have communications and intelligence. If the Eqyptian Army is being used we should help make sure they are directed at the most radical elements.

Personally, I am not so much concerned with the Iranian influence as I am with Sunni radical elements that will find a voice in Egypt. That will destabilize Saudi Arabia and jeopardize Israeli peace. I also don't think the Egyptian people care who replaces Mubarek at this point so the first one to gain power wins.

[Trip]

I disagree. Straddling the fence is what will get us in trouble. Help Mubarak get out. Give a moderate protester candicate the resources to quickly take control and stop it and form a government. The longer it lingers, the more the radicals will get a foothold. The longer it lasts, the longer the radicals will blame the U.S. and the more hostile the replacement will be. By making the problem complicated and worrying about ripples, we become paralyzed with inaction and we just look like we are backing Mubarak.

We knew the Shah was done way before 1979. We straddled and hemmed and hawed and looked for a passive way out. We feel the effect to this day. To the Egyptian people it appears that Mubarak and anyone he selects is being propped up by the U.S. and it will just foment more anger. The U.S. isn't holding Mubarek up but that reality and the perception of the Egyptian people grows farther apart each day Mubarek retains power.

There is a difference between what we say publicly, which should support the Egyptian people, and what people on the ground inside Egypt are doing. We should be supplying moderate elements on the ground with resources and assistance. The should have communications and intelligence. If the Eqyptian Army is being used we should help make sure they are directed at the most radical elements.

Personally, I am not so much concerned with the Iranian influence as I am with Sunni radical elements that will find a voice in Egypt. That will destabilize Saudi Arabia and jeopardize Israeli peace. I also don't think the Egyptian people care who replaces Mubarek at this point so the first one to gain power wins.

Oh, I see what you and RDS are saying....you're saying get him out NOW? LOL. Please find me one person actually knowledgeable of the Middle East and how diplomacy works of any political persuasion that agrees with you.

[Trip]

Sorry, he is not going to be gone by tomorrow. Just not going to happen.


As for this quote: "Give a moderate protester candicate the resources to quickly take control and stop it and form a government." Even a freshman poli sci major would shake their heads at this.