Impact of Egypt on Us

[Trip]

Condescending crap like that adds nothing to a debate, Trip. Try using facts rather than attempting to demean those who disagree with you.

Well, the first thing we need to get rid of is the rolling eyes smileys. As usual, you start using them and wonder why people reply with the same rolling eyes tone.

And Mikey, if you'd actually read my posts, you'd see that everyone agrees that Mubarak should go...it's just a matter of when. And it isn't going to be today.

[Trip]

US 'losing credibility by the day' on Egypt: ElBaradei

What Laura Bush and Condi Rice did years ago is about as relevant at the moment as what Harry Truman did in office.

The flame has been lit and is burning, we need to quit sitting on the fence and start being proactive in getting Mubarak to step down. The army will probably tell him to leave soon, but if we were involved, it would give us at least some credibility with the incoming government.

That was just one example that was in the open press that almost everyone knew about. Do you really think absolutely nothing happens behind the scenes? Administration after Administration can be thanked for having pushed Egypt to the level of "democratization" they're even at. It's been the policy of every Admin and has been a major part of what goes on behind the scenes over the years. Mubarak always gets a carrot and a stick from the US. None of this groundwork was laid before Iran fell 30 years ago. There is tremendous goodwill toward the US by Egyptian people, unlike Iran, therefore your equating it to Iran is not correct, other than how fast things can become chaotic.

[Trip]

I only brought up the analysis bit because you claimed how complicated it is and how the administration is playing it down the middle and blah, blah, blah. It's not complicated to the rioters in Egypt, though. They only want Mubarek gone.

For the last time, this doesn't mean it's in the interest of stabilization of the entire Middle East.

[retdetsgt]

Well, the first thing we need to get rid of is the rolling eyes smileys. As usual, you start using them and wonder why people reply with the same rolling eyes tone.

And Mikey, if you'd actually read my posts, you'd see that everyone agrees that Mubarak should go...it's just a matter of when. And it isn't going to be today.

My rolling eyes was aimed at your statement, not you personally. Your comment to Mike was totally at him, not so much what he said.

Your primary tool so far has been that everyone (including you) know more about this than anyone who disagrees with you. I've seen few, if any facts offered.

Yes, he's going to go. Are we going to use his leaving to our advantage or are we going to stand on the fence and hope for the best. It's never worked well before, but that's obviously what we're going to do.

[oscarmitre]

What was it that Bismarck said, something about people shouldn't know how sausages and politics are made? But sometimes you just have to look into the mincer.

I always wonder why despots continue to be able to rule in a world that in many countries takes democracy for granted.

No big secret in Imperial Rome, the despot simply had to provide bread and circuses for the masses, keep his secret police working efficiently, watch his closest relations carefully, ensure the military is onside and there are no potential competitors there and then knock off anyone that looks like being a political threat.

I reckon that model has worked pretty much to the present day and has probably still got some legs in it.

From news reports, which are always at times like this going to be a mix of fact and speculation, albeit informed speculation, it seems the military may, just may, be allowing Mubarak to sweat.

The other security apparatus, the riot police and secret police, may be more inclined to support Mubarak for their own reasons but the key will be the military.

I suspect (no info just a suspicion) that the military will sniff the wind a bit and see how things are going. They may get their back up if Mubarak gives them orders such as "kill the bastards", in which case he's a goner. The riot police and security police may roll over in that case.

I do agree that El Baradei is a moderate worth supporting but the problem for powers outside of Egypt is that any comment supporting him will be seen as the usual business of world powers trying to influence strategically important governments. Of course there will be support, perhaps only tacit, but it will be there, we'd have to be dills not to understand that.

But it's the sort of thing that can't be signalled as clearly as it used to be when Britain, France and the US had a huge amount of direct influence in the region. Just as an aside, that influence is what gave us militant Islam now, but that's another issue.

I could be wrong of course. But my job's not on the line over it.

I reckon MikeG and RDS are giving some very interesting and informed views on this issue. Given that I don't see either of them getting a job at FoxNews any time soon

Oh and Trip, by all means disagree, but be nice about it k?

[Trip]

What was it that Bismarck said, something about people shouldn't know how sausages and politics are made? But sometimes you just have to look into the mincer.

I always wonder why despots continue to be able to rule in a world that in many countries takes democracy for granted.

No big secret in Imperial Rome, the despot simply had to provide bread and circuses for the masses, keep his secret police working efficiently, watch his closest relations carefully, ensure the military is onside and there are no potential competitors there and then knock off anyone that looks like being a political threat.

I reckon that model has worked pretty much to the present day and has probably still got some legs in it.

From news reports, which are always at times like this going to be a mix of fact and speculation, albeit informed speculation, it seems the military may, just may, be allowing Mubarak to sweat.

The other security apparatus, the riot police and secret police, may be more inclined to support Mubarak for their own reasons but the key will be the military.

I suspect (no info just a suspicion) that the military will sniff the wind a bit and see how things are going. They may get their back up if Mubarak gives them orders such as "kill the bastards", in which case he's a goner. The riot police and security police may roll over in that case.

I do agree that El Baradei is a moderate worth supporting but the problem for powers outside of Egypt is that any comment supporting him will be seen as the usual business of world powers trying to influence strategically important governments. Of course there will be support, perhaps only tacit, but it will be there, we'd have to be dills not to understand that.

But it's the sort of thing that can't be signalled as clearly as it used to be when Britain, France and the US had a huge amount of direct influence in the region. Just as an aside, that influence is what gave us militant Islam now, but that's another issue.

I could be wrong of course. But my job's not on the line over it.

I reckon MikeG and RDS are giving some very interesting and informed views on this issue. Given that I don't see either of them getting a job at FoxNews any time soon

Oh and Trip, by all means disagree, but be nice about it k?

I'm pretty sure starting off with "you know I luv ya but.....means I disagree pretty adamantly and am going to try to say it as diplomatically as I can but I think someone's way, way,way off." Mikey and RDS know I luv em And I would ask for the removal of rollling eyes smileys in a serious discussion. There, now we're all happy

And I agree with much of your assessment btw......

[Trip]

My rolling eyes was aimed at your statement, not you personally. Your comment to Mike was totally at him, not so much what he said.

Ahhhh, it's the Venus-Mars thing Rolling eyes are rolling eyes RDS.

Your primary tool so far has been that everyone (including you) know more about this than anyone who disagrees with you. I've seen few, if any facts offered.

I'm not in the position to share facts but can try to encourage folks to read or listen to news

Yes, he's going to go. Are we going to use his leaving to our advantage or are we going to stand on the fence and hope for the best. It's never worked well before, but that's obviously what we're going to do.

I don't think you're understanding what's meant my "handle this delicately by not overly supporting one side." What would be to everyone's advantage is for us to use our leverage for reforms and process, not personalities.