Predictions for Ya Creeker

[Trip]

Ok, Creeky, not only do I think we're gonna take back the House and the Senate, I think you're gonna see healthcare legislation repealed, Cap and Trade completely nixed, and Republicans come up with a budget that will carve into all those untouchable entitlements for the first time in the history of this Republic. If this happens, the economy will really take off. There's a trillion+ frozen in the business coffers because of all the uncertainty caused by Obama's economic lurch to the left....but November elections are gonna sweep in a belt-tightening mentality that will induce all that private capital to be unleashed, spurring on the economy in a way that capitalism-haters can never grasp. And you Tea Partiers will have been key!

Have faith...change is a comin Keep up the push.....

[retdetsgt]

Healthcare might be repealed and this other stuff passed, but it will all get vetoed by Obama. I can't see the Republicans are going to get anywhere near a veto proof majority in either house.

The majority of the country isn't all that far to the right. Obama did get elected ya know, as well as all the other Democrats. Republicans blew it and went too far and that's how they lost the presidency and Congress to begin with.

[Trip]

The majority of the country isn't all that far to the right. Obama did get elected ya know, as well as all the other Democrats. Republicans blew it and went too far and that's how they lost the presidency and Congress to begin with.

We Republicans DID blow it and no one's going to tolerate that stupidity again. I agree with ya, RDS, I think most of this country is to the right of the middle, I am to the right of middle, and I think that's exactly the mood of people in these elections as well. When I say to the right of middle, that includes a lot of Democrats as well.

It's not about extreme issues on either side for a change....it's about getting this country back in fiscal order. I say it's going to be a sweeping-in of Republicans but what I really see is a coalition of all those Republicans as well as fiscally conservative Democrats taking charge of the agenda. And the variable that's really different this time is the voting public. The voting public has developed such an impressive understanding of how this economy works, based I think, on the rise over the past decade or so of so many Americans with their hands in small businesses. Whether they've succeeded or failed, I see so many more people in this country who understand why too much national debt, too much deficit, and too much red tape has had a chilling effect on their desire to be their own masters, and therefore on the overall economy.

I also think the current performance of Keynsian principles that liberals have been embracing for so many years -- well it's about to be the final nail in that coffin. The unemployment report yesterday was crushing for liberals....that has a lot to do with why I'm making the predictions I am.

Oh, and watch Paul Ryan from Wisconsin really closely if Republicans do sweep in November. He's going to be waiting in the wings with a budget that will start to slash entitlements I believe. If he does, and if all those fiscally conservative Reps and Dems follow, it will be a watershed event.

[retdetsgt]

I'm headed out the door so I'll respond more later. But just on the healthcare issue, as I recall about 24% of Americans are against it because they don't think it went far enough. Another fair percentage is happy with it and more want some sort of healthcare reform, but want something more simple and not going so far. I don't think some sort of government health care regulation will ever go away.

But again, as long as Obama is in office, he will veto anything that tries to change what he considers his legacy. The best thing that can happen in a logjam when nothing gets done.

But no way can a veto proof Congress happen in the foreseeable future.

[Trip]

I'm headed out the door so I'll respond more later. But just on the healthcare issue, as I recall about 24% of Americans are against it because they don't think it went far enough. Another fair percentage is happy with it and more want some sort of healthcare reform, but want something more simple and not going so far. I don't think some sort of government health care regulation will ever go away.

But again, as long as Obama is in office, he will veto anything that tries to change what he considers his legacy. The best thing that can happen in a logjam when nothing gets done.

But no way can a veto proof Congress happen in the foreseeable future.

Your analysis is good, RDS, but I see other variables that are new....I'll explain when you get back....and I also sense a groundswell like i've never sensed before....ttyl

Oh, and I've been seeing very different polls on healthcare for a long time now....

[Trip]

The best thing that can happen in a logjam when nothing gets done.

Btw, this is MUSIC to the ears of those of us in the business community. It would be better if politicians were smart enough about economics and business to actually come up with good legislation, but the next best alternative is for them to be so logjammed they can't get do any damage. You're right about Obama not vetoing but Congress has to fund it, and that they can stop. Let me tell ya, I'm so bullish right now, there's a bunch of stock it's time to invest in cause after November, there's gonna be a ton of optimism in the air, regardless of the actual seats won. The public is for the first time in our history not looking at the candy politicians hand out as a good thing.....they know the sum of all that candy hurts all of us. That's a new variable for example. The voting public is also ready for the bad tasting medicine - for the first time in our history.

[Trip]

On another subject, did you see that General Jones stepped down as National Security Advisor? This Admin is in a downward spiral.

[retdetsgt]

On another subject, did you see that General Jones stepped down as National Security Advisor? This Admin is in a downward spiral.

Yeah, I never thought a military person would be a good fit there. But I don't think even his staff believes much in the prospect of a second term.

The other thing on the primary subject when it comes to entitlements is that they are easy to give and hard to take away.

It still pisses me off that about 47% of households pay no federal income tax and EIC has become the new welfare. But take that away and you make nearly 47% of American households mad.

[Trip]

Yeah, I never thought a military person would be a good fit there. But I don't think even his staff believes much in the prospect of a second term.

The other thing on the primary subject when it comes to entitlements is that they are easy to give and hard to take away.

It still pisses me off that about 47% of households pay no federal income tax and EIC has become the new welfare. But take that away and you make nearly 47% of American households mad.

Totally agree with everything you said, RDS. I believe all the planets have aligned just right though for entitlements and pork to finally be put on the table. Off to do chores....later, alligator....

[retdetsgt]

Totally agree with everything you said, RDS. I believe all the planets have aligned just right though for entitlements and pork to finally be put on the table. Off to do chores....later, alligator....

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think so. They may go on the table, but it would be political suicide to take away very much at all, especially right now.

I just can't see how we can tackle the deficit by cutting spending alone. Somebody is going to have to pay the credit card bill the government has been running up for decades. But we've all gotten too use to the Bush tax cuts.

[S-99]

Trip, yes, the House is likely to flip, but what will happen in Senate is far less certain. Rs would need to win 10 Senate seats. That could happen in November but it's not a given at this point. Even if it does happen and both chambers switch to GOP control, as RDS pointed out, there's a Democratic President in office who can veto legislation; plus, the majority leadership will still need 60 votes in the Senate to pass anything the least bit controversial through that chamber. A somewhat more likely scenario is divided government, which means that lawmakers on both sides of the aisle will have to work together to get anything done (or else nothing will get done).

[retdetsgt]

Oh, and I've been seeing very different polls on healthcare for a long time now....

Post them if you can. The ones I just googled didn't show a groundswell of support for repeal. The difference between liking and not liking was around 6% or so. If fact, the later polls I saw seem to indicate a small movement towards wanting to keep it.

I think they would be better off at amending the current law than trying to dump it entirely. It's such a nightmare as written, I suspect they would get much more support for that.

[retdetsgt]

Trip, yes, the House is likely to flip, but what will happen in Senate is far less certain.

Yep, the entire House is always up for grabs every two years, but only a third of the Senate. And about half of those running are already Republican. And in Alaska, with Murkowski going for a write-in, she'll be a spoiler that takes votes from Miller. I suspect the Senate will end up being deadlocked, which isn't bad, but it will prevent any change at all coming out of it.

Spoilers aren't always bad, Nader kept Gore from being President. We can be grateful for that, but I bet Murkowski turns that seat Democrat by default.

[Trip]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think so. They may go on the table, but it would be political suicide to take away very much at all, especially right now.

I just can't see how we can tackle the deficit by cutting spending alone. Somebody is going to have to pay the credit card bill the government has been running up for decades. But we've all gotten too use to the Bush tax cuts.

Again your concerns are really valid, RDS. But what would be political suicide is to advertise you're going to do it before the election. After the election, I not only see certain Republicans willing to make those politically suicidal choices, but I see a new groundswell of support from the public for people willing to make those politically suicidal choices. And if all this happens, EVERYthing is going to be on the table. I personally believe we need the Bush tax cuts, but I can see everything open for negotiation. Even if we don't get a veto-proof majority, I already feel certain about the momentum I'm already sensing that whatever happens in November will be enough to "unstick" the business community, large and small. Presently the business community, and therefore the economy, is crippled by uncertainty. That word probably doesn't resonate with folks who dont' make these day in and day out business decisions, but it is the biggest reason this economy continues to get worse. Everyone is afraid to make long term investment in human or other capital because of all this burdensome sh** Obama is piling on or signaling he will pile on the people who create jobs in this country. Multiply that dynamic times millions of players. So anyway, the money sits instead of being invested in jobs.

If the signal is sent to the markets and businesses that Cap and Trade and other things Obama is planning won't come to fruition, and that healthcare legislation will be repealed, and then add on top of that the fact that I think some of these Republicans will take the lead in proposals that will force everyone to start cutting entitlements, the markets will take off, businesses will start to spend that money on jobs and all these forces will build on each other in a positive way for the economy. There are some who would do that just because it's the right thing to do regardless of whether they get re-elected, but it would unloosen the economy in a way that they'd be seen as having provided tough leadership and be rewarded anyway. That's the calculus I'd make if I were a Congressman, so either way is an upside. This can all happen even with less ambitious Republican gains, but I predict we're all going to be surprised just how big the changes are gonna be.

With regard to healthcare legislation, no one (that's serious) thinks we should have no reform at all. But in everything I've been monitoring since that was passed, my sense is that a solid 52-56% have been consistently really against the current legislation. And have you been seeing how in the last week dozens and dozens of companies (including McDonald's.... who is backpedaling because of WH pressure... but it shows the thinking) have been petitioning the White House for waivers to the healtcare legislation? Wait till that starts to really hit the general public. There are more and more people reporting their healtcare costs have gone up. It has not bent the cost curve. It has not become more popular the more people read about it (as Obama claimed it would) - and most Democrats are running from it in the elections. My list goes on. My apologies for not having the data....I don't ever get it off the internet....it's from having read lots and lots of different data for the past 4 months from lots of sources and that's where I get the avg from. I see NO polls that show it's popular with a majority. I definitely agree with ya, RDS, that we won't go to having NO reform; but I think it will be the opportunity to scrap the current idiotic plan and come up with a better one that will actually bend the cost curve. That would include things like opening it up to interstate competition (some states only have one heathcare provider...of course that kind of monopoly breeds higher prices), reforming tort reform, etc....capitalist answers to cutting waste instead of "the other type" answer.

At least this is all what my gut is telling me

Oh, and I meant to mention all this can be accomplished....spurring on the economy....without any legislation being passed. But if the economy takes off as a result, I'd see a huge mandate for the next step.

[retdetsgt]

Republican politicians are just as concerned about their own selves and political futures as Democrats. They have different ideas about what's good for America, but when it comes their own self interest, I've never seen Republicans hold any high moral ground.

And a good portion of that 50-52% that don't like this healthcare legislation don't like because it doesn't go far enough for them. They want stronger measures. The legislation sucks, but it sucks for different reasons for different people. That doesn't mean government healthcare will go away by any stretch.

Hopefully, you're right in that the logjam will release money into the economy, but w/o a super majority Obama will veto everything sent to him.

We'll see.