BBC News - Mexico: 'Mistaken identity' over Guzman drug arrest
Apparently Mexico arrested the wrong guy. Not only would it suck to be in a Mexican jail, but being misidentified as the son of a cartel leader would be one of those "prisoners dilemna" problems for the rival cartel. Even the government completely clears him of criminal involvement, there's no reason for the rival cartel to let him live. If he turns out to be the son of their rival, killing him sends a message. If he's not the son of the rival, killing him means killing a used car salesman which is a nobody. The gang may even think the 'mistake' is a ruse to cover a flip. This guy is in a crappy situation. I wonder if Mexico has a witness relocation program (that doesn't involve a trek through the Vekol valley).
As an aside, it looks like those Mexican marines are carrying M4's. Awhile ago I read that when Mexico investigated crimes where a weapon was recovered, the S/N only got passed on to the U.S. if Mexico couldn't track it (i.e. it wasn't issued to the Mexican military). The article implied that a large number of cartel weapons and violence originated with weapons issued through the Mexican military and either AWOL soldiers or corruption allowed them to get to cartels. Supposedly we never see those stats because Mexico doesn't share S/N of weapons they can identify with their military.
Do we do any audits of what we give them? Maybe it would be a logistical nightmare but it seems like if we set it up as a lease where they had to return every weapon in any condition after 4 years or so (and we replace them), we would know how many were being diverted. I would intuitively think corruption in the Mexican military/government would make 'fast and furious' weapons look like a drop in the bucket of gun violence in Mexico.