Does anyone believe this

[explcdt8]

I just read an article today that said according to the FBI statistics, crime went down for the first half of 2010.

It doesn't seem possible when you combine the economy and the fact that some places are laying off 100+ police officers, and society isn't exactly getting any better.

What do you think the explanation is, and is crime going down in your area.

Personally, I think there are three possible explanations. First, crime is actually going down because of some weird combination of circumstances. Second, people are reporting crimes less, thus driving the numbers down. Third, that a major reduction in crime in a few cities is overshadowing an increase in other places.

[Kimble]

FBI statistics on crime figures mean very little to me, I've seen first hand how some things get stretched for UCR reporting. If the call volume goes decreases in a jurisdiction, that still doesn't mean crime is necessarily down, it' just means fewer reports to the police are being made.

[Legoate]

You forgot #4:

Police officers actually cause crime, laying them off and reducing their numbers actually causes a decrease in crime.

[retdetsgt]

Violent crimes in Oregon took a nosedive after we passed a mandatory sentencing law. Liberals have looked for other reasons for it other than that, but the truth is evident. Unfortunately, with the state budget crunch, the legislature is looking for ways to reduce the corrections budget and some of these guys may end up being released early. If so, crime will go back up.

I can't speak for any other department, but our reporting is pretty honest. In fact, once a crime report is given a classification, it's more or less out of human hands and is all computerized. And we certainly have no reason to downplay the stats anyway. It's to our advantage budget wise to show the crime that's there, not hide it. Over the years, our end of year UCR reports generally reflected what I was seeing cross my desk and what I was hearing from other cops.

If certain crimes occur too much, I have seen people get desensitized to it and not report them to the police.

[missouricop]

I hope that what Legoate means is with less cops there is less arrests made dropping the numbers.
This sound right?

[BJJVad]

Violent crimes in Oregon took a nosedive after we passed a mandatory sentencing law. Liberals have looked for other reasons for it other than that, but the truth is evident. Unfortunately, with the state budget crunch, the legislature is looking for ways to reduce the corrections budget and some of these guys may end up being released early. If so, crime will go back up.

I can't speak for any other department, but our reporting is pretty honest. In fact, once a crime report is given a classification, it's more or less out of human hands and is all computerized. And we certainly have no reason to downplay the stats anyway. It's to our advantage budget wise to show the crime that's there, not hide it. Over the years, our end of year UCR reports generally reflected what I was seeing cross my desk and what I was hearing from other cops.

If certain crimes occur too much, I have seen people get desensitized to it and not report them to the police.

Same for our area.

[scott715us]

I hope that what Legoate means is with less cops there is less arrests made dropping the numbers.
This sound right?

I'm assuming he is. The UCR is based off arrests. Layoffs = fewer officers = fewer arrests = lower crime rate. From what I've seen robberies are up in my area.

[Legoate]

Here is another theory.....

DA's in my area have refused to prosecute a whole bunch of crimes by category..... So they say "to save money we won't be prosecuting any simple assaults any longer". Nothing changes for a while, then the cops on the beat get tired of arresting people, writing cites, and writing reports for cases that they know will be dropped at intake so they stop doing it.

Hell, while they are at it, any "wobblers" (crimes that can be prosecuted as either a misdo or felony) will be bumped down to misdemeanor and also not prosecuted....

Less assault arrests statistically would indicate less assaults.....

Our DA is actually contemplating not prosecuting any misdemeanors at all, all in the name of saving money on prosecutions...... now wouldn't that make the city a charming place to live....