FBI Preliminary Report of 11% Decrease in Homicide

[explcdt8]

Apparently the FBI released there preliminary crime statistics for 2009 saying that homicides had fallen 11 percent, down to their lowest levels since 1963.

However, aggrivated assaults are reportedly up.


What do you think about this? Personally, I believe these numbers, if accurate, since they are preliminary and I did hear somewhere that active shooter/multiple homicide incidents only get counted once in the UCR's, say more about our EMS and medical system than crime rates, since people are being feloniously assaulted, but not killed.

[retdetsgt]

I don't know about anywhere else, but in Oregon, homicides dropped remarkably in 1992 after a mandatory sentencing law was passed by voters for violent crimes. Maybe enough other states passed them to affect the numbers?

As I recall, it's homicide victims that are counted, not "a" homicide involving several deaths in UCR reporting. I know for our purposes, we count each death and I suspect we follow UCR guidelines And I doubt that medical procedures have improved 11% over the last year.

Sometimes there's no rhyme nor reason as to something like that. Next year may be completely different.

[explcdt8]

It may just be a fluke thing then, if more are getting assaulted but less died.

However, medical procedures have improved greatly since the 1960's, so when they try to make those comparisons, it feels flawed to me.

[retdetsgt]

However, medical procedures have improved greatly since the 1960's, so when they try to make those comparisons, it feels flawed to me.

But they're not talking about it dropping 11% since the 60's, they're talking about that drop in one year. Saying it's the lowest since 1963 really has nothing to do with the stats. The population was a lot less in 1963 than it is now. They're just using those numbers as a comparison.

[CityOfChicago]

My Department is reporting an 11% drop in homicides compared to last year, and our Supe is a former FBI....

Hmmm.....

[explcdt8]

Wait a minute, is this the same city that was featured in reports on 60 minutes and a few other news shows about the "out of control gang violence" and "kids killing kids" in the past year? and yet murders are down over 10%? So it was all a media fabrication?

You don't happen to use COMPSTAT or one of its variations do you?

[CityOfChicago]

We did until the new Supe took over coupla years ago. Ours was called the DOC, or Deployment Operations Center.

Our Homicides are down, but agg batts, agg batt with firearms, and agg assaults/batts against P.O.'s are all up. That's called "massaging the numbers".

[Legoate]

The news is my area is reporting that our homicide rate last year was 50% of normal- the lowest since the 50's. Of course we did nothing new that I can think of.....maybe our trauma center is doing a better job keeping people alive?

[retdetsgt]

The paper today said that Portland had 21 last year. When I left homicide in 1994, we routinely had about 50. As I posted earlier, after the mandatory sentencing passed, it dropped considerably. But they say that 21 is the lowest since 1971.

Surprisingly, only one was gang related. Previously I'd say at least 25% involved gangs.

I doubt medical care has much to do with it, it hasn't improved that much that fast. And I seriously doubt our reporting methods have changed any. There's no onus here to show a reduction in crimes like that.

Towards the end of the year, a lot of ours were committed by estranged husbands against their wives. Several were murder / suicides. Unfortunately, at least a couple were men killing their small children. One case involved a 4 year old boy and his 7 year old sister who were drowned by the father.

Reason #1 that I'm glad I'm retired.....

[CityOfChicago]

There were 453 homicides in Chicago this year (approx 15/100k people)

I heard the number for New York was 461 (approx 6/100k people)

DC was something like 23/100k.

[retdetsgt]

There were 453 homicides in Chicago this year (approx 15/100k people)

I heard the number for New York was 461 (approx 6/100k people)

DC was something like 23/100k.

Yep, the cities with the tightest gun control ordinances.....