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For anyone who doubts the interconnectivity of the world today, all you have to do is watch what seems like a small number of protestors in Egypt today pushing to oust Mubarak, and watch how huge the impact could be on us.
At a minimum investors and global markets are extremely concerned about the destabilizing effect on oil prices. And even if calm is restored next week, the current uncertainty is hitting stock markets everywhere around the world, with the markets dropping, and likely to continue doing so on Monday. And if that keeps happening, you can definitely expect it to hit our pockets here in the next few weeks.
High unemployment and numerous other factors in Egypt could potentially lead to Mubarak - a key ally of the western world - to be pushed out..... and the uncertainty about his successors having a very negative impact on oil prices, the global economy, and Middle East stability. For some of us there's even parallels with 1979 Iran, when protestors pushed our flawed ally, the Shah of Iran out, only to be replaced with the radical Mullahs. And we all know the profound impact that had for the next 30 years.
Egypt is even more critical with their control of the Suez canal. Mubarak, as flawed as he is, has been a key mediator for opposing forces in the Middle East, and can be profoundly credited for the Middle East not being in worst shape than it has been over the past years.
It won't hit our own pockets immediately, but if Egypt doesn't stablize within the next few days, expect it to catch up at our pumps in the coming weeks. If it spreads outside of Egypt, as we're seeing in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan right now as well (all moderate Arab allies of ours btw), this could be as serious as sh**.
If you're not someone who watches international news, or think it's not important, now would be a good time to start.
retdetsgt
01-29-11, 09:00 AM
Mubarak, as flawed as he is, has been a key mediator for opposing forces in the Middle East, and can be profoundly credited for the Middle East not being in worst shape than it has been over the past years.
Mostly because we pay Egypt one billion a year to play nice with Israel. That's what Carter promised them in order to get the peace prize. Up until then, Egypt was one of Israel's worst enemies.
And if we didn't need the oil in the region, we wouldn't be able to care less.
Mostly because we pay Egypt one billion a year to play nice with Israel. That's what Carter promised them in order to get the peace prize. Up until then, Egypt was one of Israel's worst enemies.
And if we didn't need the oil in the region, we wouldn't be able to care less.
He's back! Nice to see your fiestiness comin' back, RDS :)
SANE-A30
01-29-11, 09:32 PM
I watched it on the tv today at work....17 police stations was torched ! it's very scary for sure!
The Egyptian Police have a TERRIBLE reputation of being corrupt, false arrests , torture etc. THAT is why they have " run for their lives" when the populace came looking for them. The military on the other hand has always had their repsect and that is why they aren't in the same boat.
Unfortunately , without ANY police , neighborhoods have had to " take up arms" to patrol and protect their homes and businesses.
We give Egypt 1.3 BILLION a year in aid.
Their are tunnels frmo Egypt into the Gaza strip where Iran supplies the Arabs with rockets and other weapons that are launched quite regularly into Israel.
This is Deja Vu going back to 1979 in Iran. Mubarak is done just as the Shah was done. The only question is his replacement. If he is left in power, it will only make the eventual replacement worse. We need to at least quietly be backing a moderate replacement that is not tied to Mubarak. El Baradei is preferable to the Muslim Brotherhood. There is no reason why we shouldn't be able shape this into something that addresses the complaints of the Egyptian people and also puts a moderate in power. If we let Mubarak linger it will look like we are propping up a corrupt dictator and teh radicals will eventually win.
What the world doesn't need is another Islamist state. That's exactly where the revolutionaries are headed in Egypt. Keep in mind, we got Iran because of the same type of situation. This could be very bad. Not necessarily for our generation, but generations down the road.
retdetsgt
01-30-11, 07:49 PM
From what I've read so far, the army isn't pro a theocracy and have no use for the Muslim Brotherhood. That might be the saving grace of this whole thing. But Mubarak better get out pretty quick or the chances for a reasonable government will fade away as anarchy gets worse.
Kind of annoying that we give them over 3 billion in aid and they sell us oil at inflated prices. It's logical that Carter's payment plan would have gone up over the years. Israel will have a lot to worry about if Iran has much influence in the new government. The average Egyptian doesn't like Israel one bit and the payments to the government are the only reason the leaders have kept the hatred to a dull roar.
retdetsgt
01-30-11, 07:57 PM
This is Deja Vu going back to 1979 in Iran. Mubarak is done just as the Shah was done. The only question is his replacement.
And we are continuing to back him. If doesn't take a PhD in political science to see the writing on the wall, but our government is acting just as stupid as it always has in these circumstances. If we want to win any favor with the new government, we better start supporting El Baradei and let Mubarak go.
This is a very complex situation that is rapidly deteriorating not just in Egypt, but potentially in other really key countries such as Jordan and is not in ANYone's control. This revolt could bring out the very best or the very worst, and there's not one person on this planet that can guarantee which way it will go. The Obama Administration was slow at the outset but Hillary Clinton is now doing the right thing, which is to straddle this very delicate situation, just as all Administrations beforehand did, showing support for those clamoring for reform while not throwing Mubarak under the bus. Why it is important not to throw Mubarak under the bus? Because foreign policy issues are NEVER black and white....they are always complex....there are always innumerable ripple affects that can be calculated, not to mention even more that can't be. Our other "flawed" allies who've done the heavy lifting over the years that kept the Middle East from being a complete powder keg.....that kept many people alive.... are watching how Mubarak is handled by the US. Throwing Mubarak under the bus right now might make casual observers feel good, but there's not one expert from any part of the political continuum that would support that. Back to the interconnectivity thing I mentioned.
This is an issue that almost all Administrations have handled the same, trying to use our financial leverage to encourage and sometimes "pressure" for democratic reforms, as slow as they've been, and the US's history of slowly pushing Egypt down that path have now sped up.....except the speed of the changes about to take place now could be horrible for the US and the western world if the chaos gets really out of hand, and I sure don't have a good feel about it. As Piggy said, we've got to be very careful and very weary about what turn this could quickly take. Iran has their fingerprints all over these protests for one, and the Islamic radicals are poised to benefit the most from an election were it to take place today. Most everyone knows Mubarak has to go....we've all known it for sometime....but the best we can do now is straddle and use our leverage to not pick any one candidate -- that is the job of the Egyptian people -- but to push for as many electoral and economic reforms as possible.
Also this is and never has been just about oil - as criticial to every aspect of our lives as that it is. I mentioned the Suez Canal in my first post because if you look around your house, many of the items we Americans depend on go thru the Suez. Almost 10% of the world's commerce goes through there. If this gets out of hand, with radical forces or others potentially shutting that down, it will send the entire global economy into a tailspin -- at this worst possible time when the global economy is still fragile.
retdetsgt
01-30-11, 10:57 PM
Yeah, let's keep backing him all the way out the door. It's worked well in the past, hasn't it?:rolleyes5:
Telling him to leave and backing moderates just isn't our way, just like in Iran.
Yeah, let's keep backing him all the way out the door. It's worked well in the past, hasn't it?:rolleyes5:
Telling him to leave and backing moderates just isn't our way, just like in Iran.
Huh? Sorry, fail to see your point. The world is just a little teeny weeny iddy bitty more complicated than that.
I disagree. Straddling the fence is what will get us in trouble. Help Mubarak get out. Give a moderate protester candicate the resources to quickly take control and stop it and form a government. The longer it lingers, the more the radicals will get a foothold. The longer it lasts, the longer the radicals will blame the U.S. and the more hostile the replacement will be. By making the problem complicated and worrying about ripples, we become paralyzed with inaction and we just look like we are backing Mubarak.
We knew the Shah was done way before 1979. We straddled and hemmed and hawed and looked for a passive way out. We feel the effect to this day. To the Egyptian people it appears that Mubarak and anyone he selects is being propped up by the U.S. and it will just foment more anger. The U.S. isn't holding Mubarek up but that reality and the perception of the Egyptian people grows farther apart each day Mubarek retains power.
There is a difference between what we say publicly, which should support the Egyptian people, and what people on the ground inside Egypt are doing. We should be supplying moderate elements on the ground with resources and assistance. The should have communications and intelligence. If the Eqyptian Army is being used we should help make sure they are directed at the most radical elements.
Personally, I am not so much concerned with the Iranian influence as I am with Sunni radical elements that will find a voice in Egypt. That will destabilize Saudi Arabia and jeopardize Israeli peace. I also don't think the Egyptian people care who replaces Mubarek at this point so the first one to gain power wins.
I disagree. Straddling the fence is what will get us in trouble. Help Mubarak get out. Give a moderate protester candicate the resources to quickly take control and stop it and form a government. The longer it lingers, the more the radicals will get a foothold. The longer it lasts, the longer the radicals will blame the U.S. and the more hostile the replacement will be. By making the problem complicated and worrying about ripples, we become paralyzed with inaction and we just look like we are backing Mubarak.
We knew the Shah was done way before 1979. We straddled and hemmed and hawed and looked for a passive way out. We feel the effect to this day. To the Egyptian people it appears that Mubarak and anyone he selects is being propped up by the U.S. and it will just foment more anger. The U.S. isn't holding Mubarek up but that reality and the perception of the Egyptian people grows farther apart each day Mubarek retains power.
There is a difference between what we say publicly, which should support the Egyptian people, and what people on the ground inside Egypt are doing. We should be supplying moderate elements on the ground with resources and assistance. The should have communications and intelligence. If the Eqyptian Army is being used we should help make sure they are directed at the most radical elements.
Personally, I am not so much concerned with the Iranian influence as I am with Sunni radical elements that will find a voice in Egypt. That will destabilize Saudi Arabia and jeopardize Israeli peace. I also don't think the Egyptian people care who replaces Mubarek at this point so the first one to gain power wins.
Oh, I see what you and RDS are saying....you're saying get him out NOW? LOL. Please find me one person actually knowledgeable of the Middle East and how diplomacy works of any political persuasion that agrees with you.
Sorry, he is not going to be gone by tomorrow. Just not going to happen.
As for this quote: "Give a moderate protester candicate the resources to quickly take control and stop it and form a government." Even a freshman poli sci major would shake their heads at this.
retdetsgt
01-30-11, 11:16 PM
Huh? Sorry, fail to see your point.
Mubarak is gone, his chances of political survival are nil, zero. Just like the Shah, the longer we supported him, the more support we inadvertently gave to the radicals. He was our friend, but not one of the Iranian people.
A new government is going to happen. As long as we continue to back the person they want out, the less influence we will have with the leadership.
El Baradei is the most moderate of all the factions possible to take over, we need to start forming a relationship with him rather than continue to support the man who the people of Egypt want out. The more we can support El Baradei, the better chance he has against the Muslim radicals of Iran. Radicals use us as the face of Mubarak and it gives them more power against any moderate who might continue to be at least a little friendly to us.
We have a long history of supporting despots and then wondering why the people who overthrow hate us.
Oh, I see what you and RDS are saying....you're saying get him out NOW? LOL. Please find me one person actually knowledgeable of the Middle East and how diplomacy works of any political persuasion that agrees with you.
Are these the same knowledgeable people that were surprised by the riots and "slow at the outset?"
Mubarak is gone, his chances of political survival are nil, zero. Just like the Shah, the longer we supported him, the more support we inadvertently gave to the radicals. He was our friend, but not one of the Iranian people.
A new government is going to happen. As long as we continue to back the person they want out, the less influence we will have with the leadership.
El Baradei is the most moderate of all the factions possible to take over, we need to start forming a relationship with him rather than continue to support the man who the people of Egypt want out. The more we can support El Baradei, the better chance he has against the Muslim radicals of Iran. Radicals use us as the face of Mubarak and it gives them more power against any moderate who might continue to be at least a little friendly to us.
We have a long history of supporting despots and then wondering why the people who overthrow hate us.
Why do you continue to think in one dimensional checkers. Diplomacy is three dimensional chess. Multiple things happen on multiple levels, some public, some private. It's never this OR that. It's always some of this and some of that.
You said why don't we form a relationship with El Baradei? Do you not watch the news? It's ludicrous to think we wouldn't already have one with him. For example, when Laura Bush was in Cairo the last time, she met with opposition leaders to show support for them....and that was years ago. Condi Rice in a speech showed support...that was years ago.
Sorry, he is not going to be gone by tomorrow. Just not going to happen.
As for this quote: "Give a moderate protester candicate the resources to quickly take control and stop it and form a government." Even a freshman poli sci major would shake their heads at this.
He should step down and transfer power to El Baradei in a peaceful orderly fashion in a form of capitulation that saves his country. It would be nice if he didn't have to leave. But each day he holds power the less likely that will be. The more credit and power we can give to a moderate - the quicker, the better off we and Egypt will be.
Are these the same knowledgeable people that were surprised by the riots and "slow at the outset?"
Oh, and YOU predicted it? No one predicted it. This is a whole new playing field that was sparked my social media. This was all sparked by one guy setting himself on fire in Tunisia and spreading like wildfire thru social media. Big institutions don't have the control they once had. I'd think a technical person like yourself would know that, Mikey.
He should step down and transfer power to El Baradei in a peaceful orderly fashion in a form of capitulation that saves his country. It would be nice if he didn't have to leave. But each day he holds power the less likely that will be. The more credit and power we can give to a moderate - the quicker, the better off we and Egypt will be.
Even Hollywood movies are more believable than that.
Why do you continue to think in one dimensional checkers. Diplomacy is three dimensional chess. Multiple things happen on multiple levels, some public, some private. It's never this OR that. It's always some of this and some of that.
Because sometimes it is checkers. Regardless of the dimensions, regardless of the nuances, regardless of the levels - there will be ONE leader of Egypt. We can pretend it's out of our control. We can pretend that we are shocked and surprised. We can have paralysis through anaylsis and worry about 5th order ripple effects. OR we can focus on solving the main problem. El Baradei is the obvious choice. We better be providing him intelligence and protecting him. It would be great if we could convince Mubarek to transfer power to him asap. It would be great if we can arrange meeting with El Baradei and the military and form alliances and transition plans. We certainly have the contacts and influence to do all that.
Because sometimes it is checkers. Regardless of the dimensions, regardless of the nuances, regardless of the levels - there will be ONE leader of Egypt. We can pretend it's out of our control. We can pretend that we are shocked and surprised. We can have paralysis through anaylsis and worry about 5th order ripple effects. OR we can focus on solving the main problem. El Baradei is the obvious choice. We better be providing him intelligence and protecting him. It would be great if we could convince Mubarek to transfer power to him asap. It would be great if we can arrange meeting with El Baradei and the military and form alliances and transition plans. We certainly have the contacts and influence to do all that.
Mikey, you know I luv ya, but this is so silly, even silly Hollywood plots would be more sophisticated than this. Paralysis by analysis....where'd you pick that up....in another forum full of people who thought it was a cool word. That word and that concept is like 30 years old........ and no, it's not one dimensional checkers. But this IS America, why don't you start a consulting company and see how many people will pay you for your advice? :)
Mikey For PRESIDENT!
nighty, night
Oh, and YOU predicted it? No one predicted it. This is a whole new playing field that was sparked my social media. This was all sparked by one guy setting himself on fire in Tunisia and spreading like wildfire thru social media. Big institutions don't have the control they once had. I'd think a technical person like yourself would know that, Mikey.
Trip, it's kind of incredulous foryou to claim the no experts think Mubarek should step down ASAP while at the same time claim the experts can't predict major events such open revolt. The truth is that there are no experts in the middle of a revolution. I am also not naive enough to believe that technology changes age old phenomena such as political uprising. Iran didn't have facebook in 1979. Paul Revere didn't twitter the "British are coming." This has been a long time coming and it's age old political manipulation, intelligence and boots on the ground. I don't claim to be an expert on Egypt but I can see a disaster in the making. Mubarek is done. He's been done for quite a while and all the experts will tell you that. Open revolt has changed the timetable. Our choices are to get ahead of it and steer the best we can or stay in the wake of it and watch it bowl us over.
We should have enough influence with Mubarek to get him to transfer power to a moderate.
SANE-A30
01-30-11, 11:45 PM
He should step down and transfer power to El Baradei in a peaceful orderly fashion in a form of capitulation that saves his country. It would be nice if he didn't have to leave. But each day he holds power the less likely that will be. The more credit and power we can give to a moderate - the quicker, the better off we and Egypt will be.
I am what you would call " In the dark" when it comes to stuff like this i watch it on tv but i don't understand it really.... why are they so hell bent on him resigning? b/c he is corrupt? and why not assasinate him verses destroying where you live....also my thoughts.....and the
great city was divided into three parts, and the cities of the nations fell: and great Babylon came in remembrance before God, to give unto her the cup of the wine of the fierceness of his wrath. Reve.19
SANE-A30
01-30-11, 11:49 PM
Trip, it's kind of incredulous foryou to claim the no experts think Mubarek should step down ASAP while at the same time claim the experts can't predict major events such open revolt. The truth is that there are no experts in the middle of a revolution. I am also not naive enough to believe that technology changes age old phenomena such as political uprising. Iran didn't have facebook in 1979. Paul Revere didn't twitter the "British are coming." This has been a long time coming and it's age old political manipulation, intelligence and boots on the ground. I don't claim to be an expert on Egypt but I can see a disaster in the making. Mubarek is done. He's been done for quite a while and all the experts will tell you that. Open revolt has changed the timetable. Our choices are to get ahead of it and steer the best we can or stay in the wake of it and watch it bowl us over.
We should have enough influence with Mubarek to get him to transfer power to a moderate.
I agree with this in more ways then just one...... :)
SANE-A30
01-30-11, 11:54 PM
after reading all of your post I get it now :)....trip I swear Mike is a living encloypedia...well BOTH of you for that matter :) VERY WISE!
Mikey, you know I luv ya, but this is so silly, even silly Hollywood plots would be more sophisticated than this. Paralysis by analysis....where'd you pick that up....in another forum full of people who thought it was a cool word. That word and that concept is like 30 years old........ and no, it's not one dimensional checkers. But this IS America, why don't you start a consulting company and see how many people will pay you for your advice? :)
Mikey For PRESIDENT!
nighty, night
I only brought up the analysis bit because you claimed how complicated it is and how the administration is playing it down the middle and blah, blah, blah. It's not complicated to the rioters in Egypt, though. They only want Mubarek gone. It's also not hard to see that hardliners and extremists grow in power each day that this situation continues.
Here's your Hollywood script: We play it down the middle and keep looking for a way out that's peaceful and we try to get elections over the few next months while this street violence lingers. El Baradei gets assassinated while we keep buying time. Extremists blame Mubarek and the U.S. because El Baradei is the face of the revolution but in reality the extremists did it because El baradei is the real threat to Islamic Revolution. Extremists foment a bloody coup and instill a hardline extremist government.
retdetsgt
01-31-11, 07:33 AM
You said why don't we form a relationship with El Baradei? Do you not watch the news? It's ludicrous to think we wouldn't already have one with him. For example, when Laura Bush was in Cairo the last time, she met with opposition leaders to show support for them....and that was years ago. Condi Rice in a speech showed support...that was years ago.
US 'losing credibility by the day' on Egypt: ElBaradei (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=TX-PAR-PFR31&show_article=1)
What Laura Bush and Condi Rice did years ago is about as relevant at the moment as what Harry Truman did in office.
The flame has been lit and is burning, we need to quit sitting on the fence and start being proactive in getting Mubarak to step down. The army will probably tell him to leave soon, but if we were involved, it would give us at least some credibility with the incoming government.
retdetsgt
01-31-11, 07:35 AM
Mikey, you know I luv ya, but this is so silly, even silly Hollywood plots would be more sophisticated than this. Paralysis by analysis....where'd you pick that up....in another forum full of people who thought it was a cool word. That word and that concept is like 30 years old........ and no, it's not one dimensional checkers. But this IS America, why don't you start a consulting company and see how many people will pay you for your advice? :)
Mikey For PRESIDENT!
nighty, night
Condescending crap like that adds nothing to a debate, Trip. Try using facts rather than attempting to demean those who disagree with you.
Condescending crap like that adds nothing to a debate, Trip. Try using facts rather than attempting to demean those who disagree with you.
Well, the first thing we need to get rid of is the rolling eyes smileys. As usual, you start using them and wonder why people reply with the same rolling eyes tone.
And Mikey, if you'd actually read my posts, you'd see that everyone agrees that Mubarak should go...it's just a matter of when. And it isn't going to be today.
US 'losing credibility by the day' on Egypt: ElBaradei (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=TX-PAR-PFR31&show_article=1)
What Laura Bush and Condi Rice did years ago is about as relevant at the moment as what Harry Truman did in office.
The flame has been lit and is burning, we need to quit sitting on the fence and start being proactive in getting Mubarak to step down. The army will probably tell him to leave soon, but if we were involved, it would give us at least some credibility with the incoming government.
That was just one example that was in the open press that almost everyone knew about. Do you really think absolutely nothing happens behind the scenes? Administration after Administration can be thanked for having pushed Egypt to the level of "democratization" they're even at. It's been the policy of every Admin and has been a major part of what goes on behind the scenes over the years. Mubarak always gets a carrot and a stick from the US. None of this groundwork was laid before Iran fell 30 years ago. There is tremendous goodwill toward the US by Egyptian people, unlike Iran, therefore your equating it to Iran is not correct, other than how fast things can become chaotic.
I only brought up the analysis bit because you claimed how complicated it is and how the administration is playing it down the middle and blah, blah, blah. It's not complicated to the rioters in Egypt, though. They only want Mubarek gone.
For the last time, this doesn't mean it's in the interest of stabilization of the entire Middle East.
retdetsgt
01-31-11, 08:04 AM
Well, the first thing we need to get rid of is the rolling eyes smileys. As usual, you start using them and wonder why people reply with the same rolling eyes tone.
And Mikey, if you'd actually read my posts, you'd see that everyone agrees that Mubarak should go...it's just a matter of when. And it isn't going to be today.
My rolling eyes was aimed at your statement, not you personally. Your comment to Mike was totally at him, not so much what he said.
Your primary tool so far has been that everyone (including you) know more about this than anyone who disagrees with you. I've seen few, if any facts offered.
Yes, he's going to go. Are we going to use his leaving to our advantage or are we going to stand on the fence and hope for the best. It's never worked well before, but that's obviously what we're going to do.
oscarmitre
01-31-11, 08:31 AM
What was it that Bismarck said, something about people shouldn't know how sausages and politics are made? But sometimes you just have to look into the mincer.
I always wonder why despots continue to be able to rule in a world that in many countries takes democracy for granted.
No big secret in Imperial Rome, the despot simply had to provide bread and circuses for the masses, keep his secret police working efficiently, watch his closest relations carefully, ensure the military is onside and there are no potential competitors there and then knock off anyone that looks like being a political threat.
I reckon that model has worked pretty much to the present day and has probably still got some legs in it.
From news reports, which are always at times like this going to be a mix of fact and speculation, albeit informed speculation, it seems the military may, just may, be allowing Mubarak to sweat.
The other security apparatus, the riot police and secret police, may be more inclined to support Mubarak for their own reasons but the key will be the military.
I suspect (no info just a suspicion) that the military will sniff the wind a bit and see how things are going. They may get their back up if Mubarak gives them orders such as "kill the bastards", in which case he's a goner. The riot police and security police may roll over in that case.
I do agree that El Baradei is a moderate worth supporting but the problem for powers outside of Egypt is that any comment supporting him will be seen as the usual business of world powers trying to influence strategically important governments. Of course there will be support, perhaps only tacit, but it will be there, we'd have to be dills not to understand that.
But it's the sort of thing that can't be signalled as clearly as it used to be when Britain, France and the US had a huge amount of direct influence in the region. Just as an aside, that influence is what gave us militant Islam now, but that's another issue.
I could be wrong of course. But my job's not on the line over it.
I reckon MikeG and RDS are giving some very interesting and informed views on this issue. Given that I don't see either of them getting a job at FoxNews any time soon :biggrin5:
Oh and Trip, by all means disagree, but be nice about it k? :coolgleamA:
What was it that Bismarck said, something about people shouldn't know how sausages and politics are made? But sometimes you just have to look into the mincer.
I always wonder why despots continue to be able to rule in a world that in many countries takes democracy for granted.
No big secret in Imperial Rome, the despot simply had to provide bread and circuses for the masses, keep his secret police working efficiently, watch his closest relations carefully, ensure the military is onside and there are no potential competitors there and then knock off anyone that looks like being a political threat.
I reckon that model has worked pretty much to the present day and has probably still got some legs in it.
From news reports, which are always at times like this going to be a mix of fact and speculation, albeit informed speculation, it seems the military may, just may, be allowing Mubarak to sweat.
The other security apparatus, the riot police and secret police, may be more inclined to support Mubarak for their own reasons but the key will be the military.
I suspect (no info just a suspicion) that the military will sniff the wind a bit and see how things are going. They may get their back up if Mubarak gives them orders such as "kill the bastards", in which case he's a goner. The riot police and security police may roll over in that case.
I do agree that El Baradei is a moderate worth supporting but the problem for powers outside of Egypt is that any comment supporting him will be seen as the usual business of world powers trying to influence strategically important governments. Of course there will be support, perhaps only tacit, but it will be there, we'd have to be dills not to understand that.
But it's the sort of thing that can't be signalled as clearly as it used to be when Britain, France and the US had a huge amount of direct influence in the region. Just as an aside, that influence is what gave us militant Islam now, but that's another issue.
I could be wrong of course. But my job's not on the line over it.
I reckon MikeG and RDS are giving some very interesting and informed views on this issue. Given that I don't see either of them getting a job at FoxNews any time soon :biggrin5:
Oh and Trip, by all means disagree, but be nice about it k? :coolgleamA:
I'm pretty sure starting off with "you know I luv ya but.....means I disagree pretty adamantly and am going to try to say it as diplomatically as I can but I think someone's way, way,way off." Mikey and RDS know I luv em :) And I would ask for the removal of rollling eyes smileys in a serious discussion. There, now we're all happy :)
And I agree with much of your assessment btw......
My rolling eyes was aimed at your statement, not you personally. Your comment to Mike was totally at him, not so much what he said.
Ahhhh, it's the Venus-Mars thing :) Rolling eyes are rolling eyes RDS.
Your primary tool so far has been that everyone (including you) know more about this than anyone who disagrees with you. I've seen few, if any facts offered.
I'm not in the position to share facts but can try to encourage folks to read or listen to news :)
Yes, he's going to go. Are we going to use his leaving to our advantage or are we going to stand on the fence and hope for the best. It's never worked well before, but that's obviously what we're going to do.
I don't think you're understanding what's meant my "handle this delicately by not overly supporting one side." What would be to everyone's advantage is for us to use our leverage for reforms and process, not personalities.